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Last Closed Trade: BUY November 16, 2017 @$7849 / SELL December 20, 2017 @$15,600 - Gain of 98.75%

Previous Bitcoin Trade closed November 11@$6339 with a 54.5% gain

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  • 03 May 2018 2:29 PM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)
    Following the close above $8400, we are back in Bitcoin at a price of $8877.08, with all 3 indicators indicating BUY.  We will provide a more detailed post this weekend, with any pertinent news.  




  • 02 April 2018 5:11 PM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    It's been a while since we've posted a deeper look into the variety of indicators we use, so we thought we'd take the time to do that today.  At its most basic level, Bitcoin has just undergone what is termed a "death cross", defining that the 50-day simple moving average of prices has just declined under the 200-day moving average.  We point this out only for completeness sake because, we assure you, that buying simply on a 50-day MA crossover above a 200-day MA and selling on the opposite is not profitable when looking at Bitcoin or almost any other investment for that matter.  


    Another charting technique we look at is known as Cloud charting.  Stockcharts.com provides a pretty good explanation of this technique available here.

    Looking at the cloud charting, it is also bearish with the price of Bitcoin trading below the cloud (the blue and pink shaded areas), along with the lagging line (solid blue line), that is also below the cloud.  Cloud charting is also a good longer-term chart analysis that should keep you on the right side of the trade overall.  


    In addition, we analyze point-and-figure charts.  Point-and-figure charts have stood the test of time being used by traders on Wall Street for over 100 years.  The continued practice of PnF charts today is a testament to their usefulness.  The MCR Market Report is the only source of this valuable charting technique available to retail/individual traders today.  Point and figure charts are simply column's of X's and O's, defining uptrends and downtrends, respectively.  The multiplier is the number of boxes that must "retrace" before an up column of X's turns into a down column of O's.  Traditionally the multiplier is set to 3 times the box size, however it can be any integer the analyst chooses.  The MCR Market Report uses percent change box sizes in its Point and Figure charts as it presents a true price comparison throughout the entire data set.  Let's take a look at a simple point and figure chart of Bitcoin:


    We'll point out a few things of interest here.  After hitting over $20,000 last year (note the price target that was indicated in March of 2017! predicting that move), Bitcoin has been in a rather steady downtrend with a handful of retracements.  We admit to being "tricked" a handful of times since then going long into the rebound, only to be stopped out when prices reversed.  Overall, we have avoided the brunt of this downtrend.  The second item of interest is that Bitcoin has consolidated at around $6900-$7000, almost precisely where it bottomed in trading in February.  This price level is also close to a long-term point-and-figure trendline that is currently at around $6200.  This area should be considered very strong support going forward.  Although also of note, there are two downside targets at $5133 and $5393.  So unfortunately, while there is some bullish hope based on the fact that we haven't broken through February's low, the majority of indicators still indicate weakness going forward.

    Subscribers can get our latest proprietary indicator readings in the Inner Circle.

  • 17 February 2018 5:31 PM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    Now that both of our indicators, codenamed "Spa" and "Monaco" are now on BUY signals, we have transmitted a BUY for Bitcoin at a close above $8400, that triggered at $8908.10.  A few notable changes have occurred since our two previous (failed) attempts to catch the bottom of Bitcoin's price.  Most notably, when trading markets, news known is news discounted, which means that fears of the unknown scare market participants often much more than the news itself.  It turns out that many of the concerns over regulation and cryptocurrency appear to be overstated.  At the MCR Market Report, we agree that some form of regulation would be good for Bitcoin as perusing the message board Reddit shows us the absolute naivete of a multitude of bitcoin investors--taking out second mortgages to invest in crypto, etc.  In addition, some regulation will be necessary if Bitcoin is to achieve a status of being its own asset class, one in which we believe it rightfully deserves. 

    Latest Chart, both indicators on buy signals:

    We appreciate our subscribers, if you have any questions or comments please don't hesitate to reach out to us at tr@mcrmarketreport.com

     
  • 21 December 2017 3:57 PM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    We recommend subscribers exit Bitcoin positions this evening as both Quant-1 and Typhoon indicators have turned negative.  Also notable, is that virtually the entire established cryptocurrency space is negative as well, suggesting money is flowing out of crypto in general.  Prior to today, some of Bitcoin's fall could be attributed to the rise in price of Bitcoin Cash, but as of this writing Bitcoin Cash is down almost 15% today.  Current state of the indicators:

    We're still a little curious as to why Charlie Lee felt the need to liquidate his entireLitecoin holdings.  Given the weakness across the entire crypto complex, along with other suspicious activity, there's no harm in taking profits and waiting for a new entry point with a higher probability of success.

    At current prices we've recorded a gain of 98.99%on the latest trade.  Congratulations!

    We hope you enjoy your subscription and find it useful in your crypto trading and analysis.  As always, if you ever have any questions, comments, concerns, or tips, don't hesitate to email us at tr@mcrmarketreport.com.

     
  • 09 December 2017 8:34 PM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    Yesterday we noted our concern over the possibility of a blow off top, and future impending weakness (here).  Furthermore, we noted that we'd be carefully monitoring our Quant-1 indicator (which is the first to react to strength or weakness, but more prone to whipsaws than our longer term Gemini and Typhoon indicators).  With the close of Saturday's trading session London time, we note that Quant-1 has now turned negative.  Given the extremely volatile trading over the last 3 days, even by Bitcoin standards, along with the apparent "blow off top", and the negative Quant-1 indicator, we now recommend taking partial profits NOW at $14,411. Note our Quant-1 indicator on the bottom pane.  We've highlighted each period with an ellipse where it had indicated future weakness in Bitcoin.  Whatever level of core holdings you wish to maintain rely on your personal risk tolerance.  Luckily with our buy in at $7849, we have plenty of room to let our profits ride.  However, overall, we see no reason to not take at least some profits at this point.


    We appreciate having you as a subscriber!  If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don't hesitate to contact us at tr@mcrmarketreport.com

     
  • 08 December 2017 11:11 AM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    Volatility might be an understatement.  Bitcoin had a high of $19,697 on GDAX yesterday (although their site went down amidst the flood of trading for a multitude of clients) and low of $13,500.  The 6,197 point spread translates to a 45.9%(!!) peak to valley move yesterday alone! We thought it a good time to make a quick post for subscribers with an indicator update and one concern we have.  

    First off, even with the weakness today, all of our indicators remain on BUY signals with the shorter-term Quant-1 indicator the only one showing weakness.  Quant-1 is traditionally our "distant early warning" indicator that we use to lighten up positions, or go aggressively long, with our longer-term Typhoon and Gemini indicators for position trading.  


    However, one scenario we wanted to bring to the attention of Inner Circle members is the possibility that we may have just witnessed a "blow off top".  Investopedia explains a blow-off top this way:  

    A chart pattern that indicates a steep and rapid increase in a security’s price and trading volume followed by a steep and rapid drop in price and volume. The rapid changes indicated by a blow-off top, also called a blow-off move or exhaustion move, can be the result of actual news or pure speculation.

    A blow-off top usually indicates that a security’s price is about to fall, while a blow-off bottom suggests that a security’s price is about to rise. A security also can enter a blow-off period during which its value remains inflated for weeks or months. Often times, momentum stocks experience blow-off periods during their violent upswings and downswings.


    With this possibility in mind, should Bitcoin break below $13,500 either today or in the next few days, we recommend exiting speculative positions and maintaining a core long position to your level of comfort.  Note that $13,500 would still represent a gain of 72% for our trade initiated on November 16th at $7849.  That area would most likely trigger a SELL signal on Quant-1, with both Typhoon and Gemini remaining long.

     
  • 07 December 2017 5:01 PM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)



  • 05 December 2017 10:22 AM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    First of all, we wanted to point out that back in October, we looked at a seasonality study that overlaid the annual price of Bitcoin on itself , and averaged it over several seasons to see if there was a seasonal pattern to Bitcoin's price movements.  We noted that the October/November timeframe was quite positive (article here), and that according to that particular study we should see an upward bias in Bitcoin.  That has indeed occurred with Bitcoin closing out the October/November time frame with a gain of 128%.  However, while we still follow our indicators for our primary trading, it is noteworthy that the month of December has traditionally been negative for Bitcoin.  (Note the weakness on the bottom pane starting in the beginning of December.)  So what do we recommend?  With all 3 of our indicators still on BUY signals, stay invested to your comfort level, however we do not recommend being on margin, or using risky or speculative money at these high levels with a potential negative seasonal effect on the way.


    Secondly, following JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon's comments that Bitcoin was a "fraud", we suggested that perhaps he was talking down Bitcoin while buying it up himself.  We noted that Wall Street has a long history of deception when it comes to what they tell public versus what they are doing themselves.  Well the latest news out of JP Morgan is that JP Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, publicly stated that bitcoin has the potential to become an emerging asset class, given that CBOE and CME, two of the world’s largest options exchanges, will list bitcoin futures by mid-December.  “The prospective launch of bitcoin futures contracts by established exchanges, in particular, has the potential to add legitimacy and thus increase the appeal of the cryptocurrency market to both retail and institutional investors,” said Panigirtzoglou.


  • 04 December 2017 11:00 AM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

    Starting off with a look at our proprietary indicators, Bitcoin remains in the most bullish condition with all 3 of our indicators on BUY signals.


    Bitcoin had tremendous intraday volatility last week with a peak to trough 27% move on Wednesday alone.  The move prompted our last post on why we don't recommend using stops when investing in Bitcoin.  While net profit is very important to us, with each of our indicators beating buy-and-hold buy at least a 2 to 1 margin, of utmost importance to us is risk-managment.  We do our best to keep maximum drawdowns (the percentage drop from a peak in equity during a trade) to less than 30%, with below 20% being our goal.  

    It appears that the theme for last month was a coordinated attack on Bitcoin with many major international investment banks such as J.P. Morgan and Societe Generale criticizing the cryptocurrency in highly publicized news reports.  The reports caused enough of a sell-off to trigger some of the protective mechanisms we employ to trigger a sell-signal on November 11th.  However, the subsequent rebound allowed us to re-enter on November 16th at $7849.  That trade is currently up 45% as of today.  

    This past week, the theme seems to have changed to a coordinated attack by central banks in their attempts to reign in Bitcoin.  Some of the headlines include the European Union's amendment for rules on "the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purposes of money laundering or terrorist financing."  The amendment itself is actually old news and is assuredly already accounted for in Bitcoin's price, however the "news" is that the amendment is in the final "trilogues" of negotiations and that the amendment in some form will be probably become EU law in "a couple months' time", according to an anonymous official.  In addition, the United Kingdom is also working on the amendments, stating that the government supports the "intention behind these amendments."  Stephen Barclay, economic secretary to the Treasury stated "We expect these negotiations to conculde at EU level in late 2017 or early 2018."

    In addition, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau came out with especially harsh rhetoric regarding Bitcoin stating, "We need to be clear: Bitcoin is in no way a currency, or even a cryptocurrency."  In a conference in Beijing, Villeroy said, "It is a speculative asset.  It's value and extreme volatility have no economic basis, and they are nobody's responsibility."  We are trying to reconcile the comments with the Bank of France's bailouts of of the six largest banks in France in October of 2008.  France set aside 360 billion euros ($483.4 billion) to bail out its banks in the depths of the financial crisis.  Link here.

    Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz also jumped on the establishment bandwagon sharing his views about Bitcoin on Bloomberg stating that "bitcoin is successful only because of its potential for circumvention, lack of oversight."  "It ought to be outlawed," he stated, due its lack of government oversight.  In addition, he stated that it "doesn't service any socially useful function."  

    Finally, remember the Winklevoss twins, the two guys that sued Mark Zuckerberg after claiming he stole their idea for Facebook?  Well, apparently they're billionaires now.  Using $11 million of their $65 million winnings from their Facebook lawsuit they purportedly bought Bitcoin is 2013 (and it is assumed they never sold it).  The amount would have been equal to 1% of the entire cryptocurrency's dollar value equivalent.  Bitcoin has surged over 10,000% since their investment, when one coin traded at $120.  

    As we gear up for the Christmas season, don't forget to tell your friends and relatives what you really want this year:


    And at least one of our subscribers is raising their children right:


    We appreciate having you as a subsriber.  If you ever have any questions, comments, or concerns, please don't hesitate to contact us at tr@mcrmarketreport.com.  



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