MCR Market Report

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A Couple of Interesting Items for the Inner Circle

05 December 2017 10:22 AM | MCR Market Report (Administrator)

First of all, we wanted to point out that back in October, we looked at a seasonality study that overlaid the annual price of Bitcoin on itself , and averaged it over several seasons to see if there was a seasonal pattern to Bitcoin's price movements.  We noted that the October/November timeframe was quite positive (article here), and that according to that particular study we should see an upward bias in Bitcoin.  That has indeed occurred with Bitcoin closing out the October/November time frame with a gain of 128%.  However, while we still follow our indicators for our primary trading, it is noteworthy that the month of December has traditionally been negative for Bitcoin.  (Note the weakness on the bottom pane starting in the beginning of December.)  So what do we recommend?  With all 3 of our indicators still on BUY signals, stay invested to your comfort level, however we do not recommend being on margin, or using risky or speculative money at these high levels with a potential negative seasonal effect on the way.

Secondly, following JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon's comments that Bitcoin was a "fraud", we suggested that perhaps he was talking down Bitcoin while buying it up himself.  We noted that Wall Street has a long history of deception when it comes to what they tell public versus what they are doing themselves.  Well the latest news out of JP Morgan is that JP Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, publicly stated that bitcoin has the potential to become an emerging asset class, given that CBOE and CME, two of the world’s largest options exchanges, will list bitcoin futures by mid-December.  “The prospective launch of bitcoin futures contracts by established exchanges, in particular, has the potential to add legitimacy and thus increase the appeal of the cryptocurrency market to both retail and institutional investors,” said Panigirtzoglou.

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